OMAHA, Nebraska - Creighton University Economist Dr. Ernie Goss predicts overall retail sales to grow by 3% to 4% this holiday shopping season.The largest growth will be in the e-commerce sector of the retail industry with Goss forecasting sales to be about 14% higher than last year.That will be a huge benefit to the warehousing, wholesale and companies that provide shipping services.
There are some red flags as we head into the season.The economy is slowing.The GDP growth rate, which measures the pace of economic growth, is at 1.9%. Goss says this is down from last year, signaling slower economic growth. Consumers need to prepare for slower economic growth and somewhat higher unemployment levels in the weeks and months ahead.
Those hiring extra help for the season could experience problems as well.. Retailers looking to ramp up hiring to keep up with the holiday rush could have a harder time getting fully staffed, Goss says. Finding and hiring qualified workers is currently the number one economic issue Goss sees in his data. The hiring crunch has a reverse effect for consumers. Wages are growing slightly, and employers are offering more referral incentives and bonuses to employees for recruitment. This infusion of additional money into the economy will translate to growth in retail sales, Goss adds.
Gifts of services and experiences such as health club memberships and vacations are an emerging trend that Goss expects to continue, providing competition to traditional gifts like new pajamas and scented candles.
What is happening globally is another issue. .Goss tells NewsRadio 1110 KFAB, "With the uncertainty with what is going on with China and even Europe, that spills over into the economy.That will spill over into the consumer side.The next round of tariffs that are slated to begin in December will be focused on the consumer and that could have some fairly significant impacts."
Goss adds that consumers need to prepare for a slower growth economy.That means slower wage growth.That also means higher unemployment levels but he doesn't believe that will be significant.